China Carbon Credit Market (2025-2031) | Forecast, Size, Growth, Share, Companies, Revenue, Analysis, Trends, Industry, Outlook & Value

China Carbon Credit Market Growth Rate

According to 6Wresearch internal database and industry insights, the China Carbon Credit Market is expected to reach at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% during the forecast period (2025‑2031).

The market is driven by government policy, ETS expansion, corporate ESG goals, decarbonization pressure, tech innovation, and international climate commitments.

China Carbon Credit Market Highlights

Topics Covered in the China Carbon Credit Market Report

The China Carbon Credit Market report comprehensively covers the market  by sector. The report offers an in-depth and unbiased analysis of market trends, opportunities, and challenges, assisting stakeholders in formulating strategies aligned with current and future dynamics. It highlights regional preferences, technological advancements, and investment prospects driving the China Carbon Credit Market continuous expansion.

China Carbon Credit Market Synopsis

The China Carbon Credit Industry is gaining sharp momentum as regulatory mandates and expanding emissions trading systems (ETS) compel firms to participate. By including steel, cement, and aluminium industries, the ETS now covers over 60% of China’s emissions. The reactivation of voluntary schemes such as the CCER has increased the generation of credits from afforestation, renewable energy deployment, and methane recovery efforts. Technology and verification agencies are increasing transparency and demand across both segments.

The China Carbon Credit Market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate CAGR of 4.5% between 2025 and 2031. The primary catalysts of the China Carbon Credit Market encompass the expansion of the national ETS to include high-emission industries, the reactivation of the CCER voluntary program, and China's commitment to attain carbon neutrality by 2060.  The implementation of absolute emissions caps by 2027 is anticipated to increase credit demand.  Transparency is enhanced by MRV and blockchain technology, while increasing ESG commitments and renewable investments bolster growth in both compliance and voluntary credit markets.

China Carbon Credit Market Challenges

High credit costs and market fluctuations discourage participation from smaller emitters; validating emissions reduction is still a complex task. Deficient MRV infrastructure limits assurance in project reliability. Unclear regulatory timelines for sector entry delay investor decisions. Oversupply of free allowances weakens compliance market incentives. Provincial discrepancies raise administrative demands, and the absence of adequate cold chain facilities or technical aid for specific voluntary projects adds to overall operational burdens.

China Carbon Credit Market Trends

Key trends involve stricter emissions caps replacing intensity-based benchmarks from 2027, broader ETS sector coverage, and surging voluntary credit demand. Carbon credit prices remain volatile after the CCER program resumed. Methane capture, afforestation, and reforestation projects are becoming more prominent, especially in voluntary markets. Enhanced digitalization and transparency on trading platforms are drawing increased involvement from carbon-intensive industries.

Investment Opportunities in China Carbon Credit Market

Opportunities lie in developing robust MRV systems for both compliance and voluntary sectors. There is rising potential for project developers in methane capture, renewable energy, and natural carbon sinks. Technology providers supporting blockchain or digital verification hold promise. Investors can explore financing tools tied to CCER credits and emergence of financial derivatives of carbon allowances. Partnerships between government, local industries, and research institutions are also promising.

Leading players in the China Carbon Credit Market

Leading players in the China Carbon Credit Market Share include China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, China Energy Investment Corp, and CNOOC. These firms dominate the compliance segment. In the voluntary market, key participants include international platforms like Verra and Gold Standard, supporting renewable and afforestation credit projects.

Government Initiatives in China Carbon Credit Market

According to Chinese government data, it launched its national ETS in 2021, initially covering the power sector, and has recently expanded it to include steel, cement and aluminium industries, increasing emissions coverage to over 60%. The CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) program was revived, enabling voluntary project-based credits such as afforestation and renewable electricity. The government announced that from 2027 absolute emissions caps will begin replacing intensity benchmarks in major sectors. These initiatives align with China’s goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060.

China Carbon Credit Market Future Insights

China carbon credit market will grow rapidly, driven by expanding sector coverage, tighter emission caps, and rising carbon prices. Absolute emissions limits will be introduced by 2027, pushing stronger decarbonization. Voluntary carbon markets will expand as corporate ESG efforts rise. Market sophistication will increase with new financial products and cross-border linkages. However, challenges remain in data accuracy, policy stability, and potential industry resistance. Overall, China’s carbon market is set for robust growth, playing a critical role in national and global climate goals.

Market Segmentation Analysis

The report offers a detailed study of the subsequent market segments and their leading categories.

Industry sector to Dominate the Market - By Sector

According to Guneet Kaur, Senior Research Analyst, 6Wresearch, In the China Carbon Credit Market, the Industry sector dominates in terms of market share and credit demand. This includes high-emission industries such as steel, cement, power generation, and aluminium, which are prioritized under the national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). These sectors contribute the largest share of both compliance-based credits and carbon trading volume, driven by mandatory emissions caps and performance benchmarks. As more sectors are added post‑2025, industry’s role will remain central to China Carbon Credit Market Growth and revenue.

Key Attractiveness of the Report

• 10 Years of Market Numbers.
• Historical Data Starting from 2021 to 2024.
• Base Year: 2024.
• Forecast Data until 2031.
• Key Performance Indicators Impacting the Market.
• Major Upcoming Developments and Projects.

Key Highlights of the Report:

• China Carbon Credit Market Outlook
• Market Size of China Carbon Credit Market, 2024
• Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market, 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Revenues & Volume for the Period 2021 - 2031
• China Carbon Credit Market Trend Evolution
• China Carbon Credit Market Drivers and Challenges
• China Carbon Credit Price Trends
• China Carbon Credit Porter's Five Forces
• China Carbon Credit Industry Life Cycle
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Sector for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Energy for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Transportation for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Residential And Commercial Buildings for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Industry for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Agriculture for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Forestry for the Period 2021 - 2031
• Historical Data and Forecast of China Carbon Credit Market Revenues & Volume By Water And Wastewater for the Period 2021 - 2031
• China Carbon Credit Import Export Trade Statistics
• Market Opportunity Assessment By Sector
• China Carbon Credit Top Companies Market Share
• China Carbon Credit Competitive Benchmarking By Technical and Operational Parameters
• China Carbon Credit Company Profiles
• China Carbon Credit Key Strategic Recommendations

Market Covered

The report covers the market by following segmentations.

By Product Types:

• Amorphous Carbon
• Graphite
• Diamond

By Applications:

• Automotive
• Construction
• Engineering Industries
• Aerospace
• Others