6Wresearch Estimates 10.25% Decline in India Air Conditioner Market for 2025

6Wresearch is a leading market intelligence and advisory firm, today declared an updated estimation for the Indian residential air conditioner (AC) Market, which forecasts a decline of 10.25% year-on-year in total sales for 2025.

This forecast shows challenging market conditions during the second half of the year, following an early and widespread monsoon season, that has fundamentally disrupted the domestic AC industry by shortening the critical peak sales period (April and May) for the industry.

Air Conditioners sales are highly seasonal in nature, said Rajjat Kharbanda, Research Director at 6Wresearch. The majority of annual sales typically occur prior to the monsoon season (April-May). Also, an early rain arrival this year has reduced the demand for air conditioners massively in India, this is just as the peak season was supposed to extend into June.

Industry feedback indicates higher-than-usual inventory levels at distributors and retailers post-May, with many resorting to discounts and promotional financing schemes to move stock. Additionally, lesser demand has occurred among Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities owing to the early drop in temperatures, further limiting sales during the traditional strongest Quarter for AC brands.

According to 6wresearch insights, it shows that the sales performance for April and May may have come closer to expectations, the remaining off-peak season (June–December) will see a massive decline, with anticipated volumes falling 15–20% compared to last year. This drop is driven by certain macroeconomics factors, which include negligible growth in rural disposable income and inflationary pressure on consumer financing.

With the core season now out of the way, brands will need to emphasize on effective & efficient inventory management and strategic sales in the real estate sector, especially in the residential segment, which includes under construction societies and apartments, according to Rajjat Kharbanda, Research Director at 6Wresearch. We expect the market to remain fiercely competitive, with the reduction in prices and financing offers likely to increase in the upcoming months.

Beside these challenges, 6wresearch noted that long-term fundamentals are still strong, owing to the rapid urbanization, growing disposable income of the middle-class population, and increasing awareness of energy-efficient models in the country expected to contribute to the growth of the market over the next decade.